10.15.2008

further notes on last night's results

In addition to the analysis from Fair Vote Canada (which I hope you will read), I received this from a key Campaigner. Thank you!

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PUTTING THIS FEDERAL ELECTION IN PERSPECTIVE:

2008 Voter Turnout:
59.1% of registered electors (or about 41% of all Canadians)
- one of the lowest in recent history

Total Conservative vote percentage:
2006 - 36.3%
2008 - 37.6%
- A 1.3% increase after governing moderately for 2 years
- From 127 to 143 seats (gained 16 seats)

Percentage of Canadians who did not vote for Harper's Conservatives: 62.4% (that's right, 62% of Canadians - who voted!)

Times Stephen Harper has attempted to get a majority and failed: Three times (in 2004, 2006, and 2008)

Harper's MAJOR advantages in September 2008:
- Dion as leader; perceived as weak, unable to communicate
- divided, indebted Liberal Party
- early triggering of election before U.S. election and possible recession (Harper broke his own fixed date election law)
- well financed corporate party with backing of Bay Street, Washington, defence, gas and oil industries, etc.
- Green Shift policy failure for Liberals during campaign

Harper's lost opportunities this time:
- best opportunity to win majority - but did not achieve it
- did not expand support in Quebec due to unpopular policy and Bloc
- no seats in Newfoundland thanks to successful "Anything But Conservative (ABC)" campaign

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OVERALL SEAT COUNTS 2008:

Conservatives: 143
Opposition - Parties Supportive of War Resisters: 163

* * *

WAR RESISTER SUPPORTIVE PARTIES:

Liberal vote percentage:
2006 - 30.2%
2008 - 26.2%
From 95 to 76 seats

NDP vote percentage:
2006 - 17.5%
2008 - 18.2%
From 30 to 37 seats

Bloc Québécois
2006 - 10.5% (Canada-wide)
2008 - 10% (Canada-wide)
From 48 to 50 seats

Green vote percentage:
2006 - 4.5%
2008 - 6.8%
No seats

Note:
All of this is possible due to our multi-party first-past-the-post (FPTP) system which is not proportional and allows a numerical non-majority to rule as if they had majority support. Therefore, candidates and a party can win with less than 40% and can rule as if they have support of the majority of Canadians, even if they clearly do not.

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