allan guest post
So, on the morning after the Liberals suffered a historic defeat, the NDP did spectacularly well, and the Conservatives have their long-desired majority, the question so many people are asking is: Whose fault is it?
James, commenting on the previous election post, answers the question.
Suppose the NDP stole 50 seats from the Liberals. What would have happened had those seats stayed Liberal?
We would have had:Conservatives: 167 NDP: 102 Liberals: 34 Bloc: 4 Green: 1
Doesn't make much difference in terms of the majority, does it?Conservatives: 167 Liberals: 84 NDP: 52 Bloc: 4 Green: 1
Suppose all the NDP votes had gone to the Liberals. Then we'd have had:
Still not much of a difference...Conservatives: 167 Liberals: 136 Bloc: 4 Green: 1
The NDP didn't hand the CPC a majority by doing too well; the Liberals handed them one by doing so poorly.
James also linked to these maps from the 2008 and 2011 elections, showing that the NDP's gains are almost entirely at the expense of the Bloc, not the Liberals. Outside of Quebec (and bits of Toronto), the NDP's holdings have barely changed.
In closing, please remember: Facts are good. They help us understand things.