5.02.2011

2011 canadian federal election gamethread #elx41 #votemay2 #dumpharper

Here we go...

182 comments:

Andrea said...

only two pm here on the west coast. still a ways to go.

allan said...

a message.

Stephanie said...

First, I need to get my comma delimited .txt data files to open into nice excel spreadsheets.

Stephanie said...

Phew!

All fixed. My data looks like data again!

Now bring on those results! (Both for Election 41 and for my data analysis!)

impudent strumpet said...

If anyone has a dog handy, could you give them a pet on my behalf? Usually elections turn out well if I pet a dog on the way to vote, but I didn't even encounter any dogs today! Maybe it will work by proxy?

laura k said...

I/S, I will be happy to help! Allan can help too, and probably Stephanie and Dharma Seeker, and Tim if he comes by. It's gotta work!

laura k said...

OK, Steph's data is safe, carry on. :)

tim said...

1. eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! this is exciting! yay for you voting with your conscience and not for those liberal hacks.

2. lol you called my appearance L! just gave winston some hearty pets, hopefully that's enough bring positive results to this election!

3. pub night tonight - so happy the grand opening of the new pub across the road is tonight! the liberal candidate in my riding is having their party later at the "other" new pub that opened across the road last fall.

3a. elxn results and hockey and beer (and the end of tax season!) - going to be stellar.

4. i like lists - that is all for now. be back later for the history!

laura k said...

Yay Tim!!!!

laura k said...

Polls have closed in Newfoundland.

impudent strumpet said...

My attempts to watch Atlantic CBC have been foiled by Rogers, which blocked the signal. And the #elxn41 feed is cluttered up with people tweeting "YAY I voted". Do we really have to wait TWO WHOLE HOURS for information? #FirstWorldProblems

laura k said...

I thought media is not allowed to broadcast results until 10 PM eastern. Is that not correct?

impudent strumpet said...

They aren't allowed to broadcast them to people whose polls are still open. Newfoundland and Labrador can totally talk among themselves, they just can't broadcast it into Ontario. But being a child of the internet age, I'm expecting the information to fall into my hands anyway :)

impudent strumpet said...

Oh, and thank you Tim and Winston :)

laura k said...

Ah, thanks for clarifying. Being an older person of the digital age, I expect that too!

impudent strumpet said...

For those on twitter, the hashtag is #TweetTheResults

laura k said...

Oh cool, I like knowing that for feeds even though I don't tweet myself.

Stephanie said...

Jus walked Negrita and she'll be happy to help the cause by taking one (belly rub) for the team.

As for reporting I was just talking to the fairly well informed neighbour who said that there will be coverage as early as 9:30? Early results I guess. According to the Election Act is is ilegal but I can't say I have been all that aware of this until this year. My memories of past elections include hearing the results from Eastern Canada as soon as they were counted but maybe I have a faulty memory.

I/S Negrita says thank you. :)

impudent strumpet said...

I do wish they'd either have all the polls close at the exact same time, or have everything close at 8:30 local time so we have a steady flow of results. This two hour gap is boring!

laura k said...

Boring and stressful!

impudent strumpet said...

The CBC has a tracker where you can follow live results for your chosen ridings. The G&M usually has one too but I can't find one today.

impudent strumpet said...

And thank you Stephanie and Negrita :)

laura k said...

Oo good, riding tracker, that helps. Thx :)

laura k said...

You put in my riding! Thanks!

(First I thought, hmm, how did CBC know my riding, I've never been here before... but Allan suggested you posted the actual link. Ah-ha. That's better.)

impudent strumpet said...

Oops, now everyone gets to see the beginnings of my "every riding everyone I know cares about" collection.

impudent strumpet said...

Results are being posted in the usenet group can.general, accessible through Google Groups (as well as through usenet)

laura k said...

I just saw that on Twitter, too.

I liked "Darth Vader is Luke's father, Planet of the Apes is Earth" :)

impudent strumpet said...

Fun fact: I was a bit too young to watch the original Star Wars trilogy when it first came out, and we didn't have a VCR until I was in my early teens. As a result, I knew that Darth Vader was Luke Skywalker's father before I knew who Darth Vader and Luke Skywalker are.

laura k said...

Wow, I never thought about that. I guess that happened to a lot of people.

I was so happy when the original trilogy was re-released in theatres. It was great to see them on a big screen again. Did you do that?

laura k said...

(Obviously not the "again" part.)

impudent strumpet said...

Yeah, it was totally the thing to do in my high school in the months leading up to the release of the prequels. The originals were always playing in some movie theatre or another, and I like nerdy boys so I saw them many many times.

impudent strumpet said...

Here is an utterly useless projection made from some Bloc-less, Green-less numbers I found lying around somewhere.

impudent strumpet said...

Here's another useless projection with a completely different set of numbers that, although you can't see it, includes Green (but still not Bloc).

laura k said...

That one's better.

laura k said...

Conservatives win no seats in NL? Is this true? (Seen on Twitter)

laura k said...

Did they have any seats in Newfoundland before?

Stephanie said...

I think they were CONfree in NFLD in 2008.

laura k said...

More reasons to love that province.

impudent strumpet said...

According to Wikipedia, they did not. If the other sources on the first page of google results had as easily scannable a layout, I'd look at them.

laura k said...

Now I'm mesmerized by this twitter feed.

laura k said...

It's been interesting answering q's about this election on Joy of Sox, a test of how much I understand about the Cdn system.

impudent strumpet said...

Twitter says that CBC Newsworld accidentally broadcast some results out of region. I turned it on after this happened and it was off air with "Technical difficulties", although it's back now.

laura k said...

Oh, that's what it meant. I saw "cbc broke rules" and "cbc off the air" but didn't know what was going on.

Andrea said...

Twitter also says Harper broke election rules today by campaigning on the radio.
Damn I can't stand that man

impudent strumpet said...

Turning on the TV...

It just occurs to me that I could have spent the last 2.5 hours doing a significant quantity of useful and productive stuff

laura k said...

Yeah, I saw that. True to form, eh. Why would he start playing by the rules now.

laura k said...

Time for CBC!

I can't do anything else, can't think of anything else.

impudent strumpet said...

Every time a riding changes hands, drink!

laura k said...

I've got my red wine handy. What are you drinking?

impudent strumpet said...

Finishing off the white, probably starting on the red

impudent strumpet said...

Peter Mansbridge is misfiring on French vowels tonight. Should be interesting when the Quebec results start coming in...

impudent strumpet said...

The best thing about this NDP shift is it means a significant number of people thinking critically about politics rather than blindly accepting conventional wisdom.

laura k said...

OK, set up with tv now.

laura k said...

Holy shit! Look at the early returns from Quebec. Something unthinkable a few months ago. Love it.

I agree re NDP. Beautiful.

impudent strumpet said...

If it makes a difference (and I'm not sure if it does) that one Quebec riding is more Anglophone than most of Quebec (although not Anglo majority)

laura k said...

I'd hate to see Dion lose his seat.

impudent strumpet said...

OMG, Stephane Dion is still an MP! I didn't even know that.

laura k said...

I know, he is quieter than the old church mouse.

laura k said...

The Bloc is collapsing. That doesn't make me happy, but if it means more NDP seats, it will.

Stephanie said...

Okay, I am ready to pack it in for work tonight.

There will be no live feed on-line untill 10 pm so I will resort to tv. :D

laura k said...

that cracks me up, reporting with 1 poll closed, or 100 votes counted.

laura k said...

I prefer TV for this, it's easier.

Tony Clement trailing? Yay.

impudent strumpet said...

I don't think it's nice that they send cameras into political leaders' houses. They've been campaigning for weeks, they shouldn't have to get their house camera-ready too!

Hey, NDP currently leading Etobicoke North! Take THAT Rob Ford!

laura k said...

OTOH, I'd love it if Ignatieff lost his seat.

laura k said...

that's cool re ford

laura k said...

I dislike all the attention given to the 308 website. They don't have a track record yet, but so many ppl acted like they were the most trusted predictors.

laura k said...

Bah, Clement back up.

impudent strumpet said...

Despite the apparent uncertainty, I'll bet they still call the election the instant BC polls close. I hope I'm wrong on that though. Media have been calling elections far too early in recent years.

laura k said...

Go Linda Duncan

laura k said...

In 2000, that began disastrous results in the US. It's terrible.

laura k said...

I have not let myself seriously consider a Con majority. If that happens, I will be sick.

laura k said...

Rex Murphy = mute

impudent strumpet said...

OMG, just noticed Bloc has only 3!

impudent strumpet said...

Dear NDP: See the LibDems across the pond? Do better!

laura k said...

Local GTA races now on CBC, but so few polls are reporting, kind of silly.

impudent strumpet said...

Early calling can just fuck off.

laura k said...

These early numbers are making my stomach turn. seriously.

impudent strumpet said...

CBC online tracker is working but you might have to refresh

laura k said...

Con seats please stop now. Please stop coming in.

laura k said...

You know what bothers me A LOT? People who blame NDP voters for a poor Liberal showing, rather than blaming the Liberals for their own poor performance.

Andrea said...

Should not have eaten supper. Feeling sick.

laura k said...

Andrea, me too.

But here is Mansbridge admitting they are giving early returns with tiny numbers of polls reporting.

impudent strumpet said...

Who ARE these people?

laura k said...

Who is who? The voters?

I feel that way all the time.

impudent strumpet said...

At this exact moment, Scarborough is all orange

laura k said...

CBC is calling Conservative govt and NDP opposition.

Jack Layton first NDP leader to lead official opposition!

laura k said...

I see some folks I know on TV at NDP HQ

allan said...

worst showing by a liberal leader ever?

laura k said...

still only 5 seats for the bloc!

laura k said...

Coyne: I don't see how Cons don't get a majority at this point.

laura k said...

Bloc back to 3!

Stephanie said...

So tv and computer are not in the same room but I don't think I can take much more...10 minutes and way to many mentions of the M-word.

I too am feeling so very sick.

laura k said...

Trolls are out

Stephanie said...

I am certainly super happy for the NDP BUT I can't take the thought of more harper bullshit.

laura k said...

BC numbers starting to come in now. Let's get orange into triple digits.

PLEASE

laura k said...

I know. It's sickening.

allan said...

Trolls are out

With their moms turning tricks at the bus station for loonies, they get use of the computer ....

laura k said...

Peggy Nash well ahead of Kennedy, I see

Stephanie said...

oh damn gerard Kennedy. :(

laura k said...

Please BC. Please. It is up to you.

laura k said...

I am still holding out hope on that dreaded 155

laura k said...

Ignatieff may lose his own riding. Goodbye Michael. You suck.

impudent strumpet said...

The proportions of votes in my own riding in no way correspond with anything I could see with my own eyes about signage or online engagement or walking-around real life. I don't know how I'm supposed to tell what my riding's doing.

impudent strumpet said...

Opening the red

laura k said...

152??? NO NO NO NO NO NO

laura k said...

You'd think trolls would have something better to do.

But no. They never do.

laura k said...

Tory numbers just subsided from 154 to 151

Stephanie said...

Just heard from David. Irene Mathyssen (incumbent MP NDP) wins hear riding by a landslide!

Going out to the victory party (with a sick feeling in my belly). Can't watch anymore.

laura k said...

That's great news for London!

laura k said...

back to 150

laura k said...

Please BC please

"Many of those 150 seats are leads of less than 100 votes" says Mansbridge

laura k said...

Oh fuck back up to 155

this is killing me

M. Yass said...

Please no. I don't want to move to another country.

:( :( :( :( :(

impudent strumpet said...

Joe Volpe just pulled ahead in Eg-Lawrence

M. Yass said...

Please no. I don't want to move to *another* country!

:( :( :( :( :(

laura k said...

There's the 155 on my screen right now. But it's not solid.

Dharma Seeker said...

This is too depressing. The "orange wave" may very well be handing the Harper Cons a MAJORITY government (Per CBC). This is what I was afraid of. Is it worth it? To have another Conservative, probably majority, government? Does more NDP seats make it worth it? Not to me.

The only possible outcome of the Orange surge was another Harper Con government. That's what I meant when I said I wish I could share your enthusiasm for another Con government because to me an NDP opposition = a Conservative gov't. I know some interpreted it as snarky but it's really just stating the obvious.

As of now CBC is (cautiously) projecting the Harper Cons are only five seat aways from a majority. There's no question the Harper Cons have GAINED seats in the house. I can't find anything to celebrate in that. It's horrible for women, war resisters, the most vulnerable in our society. If the projections hold true it's a very sad day for Canada.

Dharma Seeker said...

Thanks Imp Strump for the helpful links :)

impudent strumpet said...

Look at the CBC online tracker, top righthand corner, under "elected" as opposd to "leading". Current numbers: C: 97, N: 34, L: 15

laura k said...

Jesus Christ I can't hear shit like that now. Do you see how people HATE the Liberals? If the Liberals want votes, they have to EARN them! Why aren't NDP votes as valid as Liberal votes?

It's not the NDP's fault the Liberals suck!!!!!

Why doesn't anyone say "don't split the vote, vote for the NDP"????

Kim, this is NOT a good time for you to come here with that.

laura k said...

It is YOUR opinion and YOUR interpretation. It is NOT "stating the obvious".

To me, the obvious is that the Liberals are bankrupt and they are paying for it.

If it the NDP and Liberal numbers were reversed, who would you blame then? NDP. So either way, it's the fault of NDP voters and you're supposed to vote for Liberals no matter how much you hate them.

allan said...

This is too depressing. The "orange wave" may very well be handing the Harper Cons a MAJORITY government (Per CBC). This is what I was afraid of. Is it worth it? To have another Conservative, probably majority, government? Does more NDP seats make it worth it? Not to me.

We should vote for what we WANT!

It is not our fault so many people like Harper or fall for his shit.

BLAME THEM!!!!!!

Do not blame progressive voters.

Andrea said...

Tears

laura k said...

Olivia Chow won her seat. Whew.

laura k said...

"Significant amount of centre-right Liberals decided to vote Conservative"

And this is the NDP's fault how?

impudent strumpet said...

A snarky little corner of my brain would be happy if Dion keeps his riding and Ignatieff loses his.

laura k said...

Ha, me too

impudent strumpet said...

Elizabeth May leading her riding

impudent strumpet said...

Finish the bottle.

laura k said...

CBC calls it majority

I am sick

laura k said...

Holy shit. What does the opposition do under a majority? I don't even know.

impudent strumpet said...

What's going to happen now? I just want to be safe

laura k said...

I wish I could console you. We have to fight to maintain our rights.

impudent strumpet said...

CBC calls Dion as elected

laura k said...

My riding is leaning Conservative

Lawrence Cannon out, NDP in that riding

impudent strumpet said...

Eddie Izzard has a theory that the closer to water you live, the further left you are politically. If you look at a riding map of Toronto, this seems to be true.

laura k said...

It's taken the Libs 3 elections to figure this out. Get some principles, get a platform, maybe people will vote for you.

M. Yass said...

The Canadian people just committed suicide. No more health care.

For me, this almost certainly means no PR status.

Andrea said...

I am afraid. I can not financially afford a Harper majority. This is so scary.

laura k said...

That is true in the US. Interesting!

laura k said...

M Yass, get a grip. Neither of those are necessarily true.

laura k said...

Andrea, it is scary. But at least now we'll have an actual opposition.

impudent strumpet said...

Current state of mind: pros and cons of opting for surgical sterilization rather than waiting until my method of choice gets approved in Canada.

impudent strumpet said...

I want to click Like or Retweet on Andrea's post

Nathan said...

I voted NDP today in overwhelmingly Conservative Alberta. I cannot glance at my fellow Calgarians without feeling the pain of betrayal. I've been watching the returns on CBC with my blinds closed.

impudent strumpet said...

Isn't Conrad Black in jail? why's he allowed to comment on tv?

Selena said...

Laura, I am so sorry your first election turned out this way. This nauseating.

Selena said...

Look, I'm so freaked out, I'm skipping words. This -is- nauseating.

Dharma Seeker said...

Good grief. I'd never tell anyone who to vote for. Ever. I never have, I never will.

I would never tell a person their party of choice "sucks". Please. Here's the best part - I don't need outside validation about who to vote for!

I am perfectly entitled to be horrified about a Harper Majority. I am not blaming the NDP, or their supporters for ANYTHING. I said to me an NDP opposition = a Conservative gov't. You said that's not a fact, it's a matter of opinion. So at what point does it become fact Laura? Because I'm watching the same broadcasts you are. It looks like fact to me.

My only goal, the only outcome I wanted from this election was to see the Conservatives booted from power. That's it. I don't belong to a party, I'm not blindly loyal to a party, and I'm sick of partisan bickering and vitrol. I resent having people jump up my arse because I didn't hop on the NDP bandwagon - I have my reasons for not doing so and non of them have anything to do with loyalty to the Liberal party.

I feel like I can't say anything right at this point so I'll bow out of this thread and head off to bed before the reality of a Con majority sets in.

impudent strumpet said...

Bonus points for the NDP for parallel drafting of their slogan

M. Yass said...

@Laura: Thanks for keeping me grounded. No changes of plans yet. I'm just really bummed.

allan said...

why are the libs booing ig off the stage?

allan said...

ignatieff assuming he'll be more than an afterthought after tonight

allan said...

sorry - why AREN'T they booing him.

M. Yass said...

"I will play any part the party wishes me to play."

Two words, Iggy: GET LOST!

allan said...

our riding is tight, but the con is leading right now

allan said...

why don't you play tenor ...

ten or twenty thousand miles away

allan said...

@M Yass, thank you, and I understand, believe me.

laura k said...

Oops, that was me, I forgot A was logged in on my netbook while I was posting on my desktop.

laura k said...

Thanks Selena. Nauseating. Yes.

impudent strumpet said...

Next time I'm going to pet a dog even if I have to walk all the way to the fricking dog park to find one!

laura k said...

I said to me an NDP opposition = a Conservative gov't. You said that's not a fact, it's a matter of opinion. So at what point does it become fact Laura? Because I'm watching the same broadcasts you are. It looks like fact to me.

It's a matter of opinion, because a Liberal opposition could be the same thing! An NDP opposition doesn't equal a Tory majority anymore than a Liberal opposition equals a Tory majority.

We could have seen a Conservative minority and a healthy showing for both the Libs and the NDP. But we didn't, we saw a repudiation of the Liberals because they haven't earned the vote.

I'm not saying your choice of voting Liberal sucks. That's your choice and it was almost mine and it doesn't suck.

But the Liberals SUCK right now. They are out of ideas and out of leadership.

As Allan said earlier, blame a Con majority on Conservative voters!

laura k said...

Oh Christ, it's Kenney. Time to mute and go away for a while.

Andrea said...

I have just become more politically motivated. I will sign every petition and fight at every turn now. I will do My part in drowning out a Harper scumbag who tashes everything I hold dear about this country. I REFUSE to let that man win any control over me!!!!

Rachel Adelson said...

I join in solidarity with our fellow nauseated. As an expat, can say not what we came for. Even our "safe" riding went blue. It's deja vu all over again and we know where this goes. Will there be protest? Is there any hope?

impudent strumpet said...

Twitter is quoting turnout of under 60%. Who ARE all these non-voting people?

laura k said...

For more on my strong reaction to Dharma Seeker's comments, see the earlier thread (in which i follow my conscience), fern hill's comments. Followed by her "...is no friend of mine" tweet.

Not that I need her as a friend (we don't know each other), just an example of the general nastiness.

laura k said...

Yeah, Andrea!!!!

It's not what I came for either, but I'm prepared to fight every inch of the way. I don't know where this goes. No outcome is known in advance: Jack Layton's NDP is proof of that.

laura k said...

I gotta go, and I have to leave moderation on for the night.

Thanks for your company tonight, Imp Strump.

And thanks to everyone who stopped by to commiserate.

impudent strumpet said...

It just occurred to me that this outcome could increase motivation for Quebec sovereignty.

laura k said...

How so? It would seem they've kissed that goodbye for the foreseeable future.

bronxexpat said...

Yep, those Quebecers - not likely to be happy campers this way. Some hints this was part of game plan to loosen up the federation. So, it's a sea change all right -- just not the sea change a lot of us want.

And tomorrow is another day.

impudent strumpet said...

The Conservative platform is less consistent with...what's the phrase they use in English..."the values and interests of the people of Quebec". The Bloc is no longer in a position to temper this. If Quebec sees Canada becoming less and less like it wants to be, it may be increasingly motivated towards separation.

I sincerely hope I'm wrong. My livelihood is dependent on Quebec's presence in Canada.

impudent strumpet said...

And Elizabeth May just won her riding.

laura k said...

Imp Strump, you may be right re Quebec, I don't know, but even if you are, it's a very long road and a total uphill climb from here to sovreignty. I wouldn't contemplate retraining anytime soon.

(Unless the Cons can get rid of language requirements!)

(Kidding!)

laura k said...

Not happy campers... but then why did they vote NDP in such record numbers?

Some hints this was part of game plan to loosen up the federation.

I don't believe people set themselves up to win by losing.

Sorry guys, I gotta go to bed, so comments will get put through tomorrow.

Scott M. said...

it's a very long road and a total uphill climb from here to sovreignty.

Not so much. All it will take is a PQ government in Quebec City (a shoo-in if an election was held today), and a province angered by a federal government that doesn't represent them.

For the first time since I moved to Quebec, I'm worried. I didn't anticipate a large Conservative majority.

laura k said...

Surely you don't mean "all it would take". As in, that happens, and poof, Quebec separates. My knowledge of how that would work might be a little thin, but that seems to stretch credulity.

John F said...

OK, I finally made it to the election thread! I went to bed early last night. What happened?



Oh, shit...

Scott M. said...

Surely you don't mean "all it would take".

Sadly, I do. The federal governments and courts have pretty much said that if a referendum, with a clear question, was held and won (50%+1) negotiations would start for succession.

That's all that would be needed to decimate the economy of West Quebec and cause major disruption to life in Canada as we know it.

laura k said...

The federal governments and courts have pretty much said that if a referendum, with a clear question, was held and won (50%+1) negotiations would start for succession.

You've just answered my question: no, that is not all it would take, it would also need this.

You're quite a few steps away from that, no matter what your fears.

However, if most of the people of Quebec want sovreignity, they should have it. 51% is not a good threshold - it should be 66% - but that's up to the people who live there.

I still think it's premature to worry about that right now - especially since you can move out of Quebec! It's not like you've lived there all your life and your roots are so deep.

Scott M. said...

You've just answered my question: no, that is not all it would take, it would also need [a referendum].

Sorry, that was intended to be implicit in my statement. It will create "winning conditions" in Quebec (a loaded phrase in Canada connoting the stars aligning to allow a QC referendum which results in separation.