10.07.2008

wmtc election prediction comes out of the closet

Throughout the past year, I have been predicting that the next election, whenever it came, would bring a Liberal minority. Most people I know have been saying - with great certainty - that it will be a Conservative majority. I continued to believe there would be a Liberal minority, although I started to feel shy about saying so.

This is true. Allan can confirm this.

During the past few weeks, I stopped saying "Liberal minority" out loud. But that was only from peer pressure, not because I actually changed my opinion. With everyone around me chirping "Tory majority, Tory majority," I felt silly out on a limb all by myself, saying "Liberal minority". But I've continued to think it all along.

In the last couple of weeks, some of the Tory-majority-ers have changed their tune to Tory minority. So now I'm coming out.

Liberal minority. That's where we're headed. This is what I think. I may be wrong. But at least I'm on record in case I'm right.

14 comments:

MSS said...

Well, I think it would be a shock, but the trends are headed that way. The Conservatives' slippage has been pretty dramatic in the past week or so. Kind of reminiscent of what happened--only in reverse--the last few weeks of the previous campaign.

This is the campaign to watch, for sure! (So I want to thank my good friends to the north for giving me a distraction from the US campaign, especially now that the Angels have been eliminated from the playoffs!)

West End Bob said...

Hope you're right, L-Girl.

Can't be any worse than the dems taking over Congress in '06. Oh, wait. That didn't work out so great, did it? :)

I have to agree, though, that a Dion minority gov't would be head and shoulders over harper 2.0.

Man, I hope Canadians can see how much more damage he - harper - could do the longer he has the reins of government. . . .

John F said...

Oh L-Girl, please be right! Dion, for all the flaws people attribute to him, is a highly intelligent and competent guy. Plus, if it's a minority, he can deal with the NDP and freeze the scary Alberta neocons out of the decision-making process.

Wrye said...

In the same spirit, let me be the first to predict an [unnamed party] minority, because if that happens, I will be frickkin' Nostradamus.

Anyways, it's all down to Ontario and Quebec, and people's memories of the [unnamed party 2] as being kind of fiscally incompetent compared to the [unnamed party 3]. Of course, [unnamed federal leader] is not popular in Quebec due to his opposition during the last [unspecified federal referedum], so I do wonder how well he or she will do over there.

(Post edited to reflect the fact that I am currently technically in the employ of Elections Canada and may not engage in partisan activities).

mister anchovy said...

My wild-assed bet is that it will be a dead heat and Elizabeth May will broker a Liberal/NDP coalition with Mr. Dion as Prime Minister.

Lisa said...

I'll go on the record for a Con minority...

And if it's a Lib minority...

...really, either way :

Holy shit!! Unusual times here in Canuck country!

I'm almost hoping for a Con minority, and then maybe a Lib/NDP coalition. I have no idea how likely or even possible that would be, but it would be nice to see the Liberals actually govern (not just campaign) from the left for a bit.

James said...

Can't be any worse than the dems taking over Congress in '06. Oh, wait. That didn't work out so great, did it? :)

Chances are good it worked out better than the Dems not taking over Congress in '06 would have... :)

L-girl said...

and then maybe a Lib/NDP coalition. I have no idea how likely or even possible that would be

Extremely unlikely, IMO.

Can't be any worse than the dems taking over Congress in '06. Oh, wait. That didn't work out so great, did it? :)

Although the Dion Liberals have capitulated to everything Harper wanted - and although the Libs do campaign farther to the left than they govern (both Democratesque traits) - I don't feel that the Cons and the Libs are basically one party with different rhetoric. Not right now, anyway.

Chances are good it worked out better than the Dems not taking over Congress in '06 would have... :)

You'd have to show me how things would be any different - what they stopped from happening. Off the top of my head, I can't think of any way in which their 2006 win made any difference. But there could well be some things I don't remember.

Scott M. said...

Well, if you plug yesterday's Nanos numbers (34/31/18/6/11) into the Hill and Knowltown Election Predictor, you get a razor-thin Liberal Minority of 1 seat (assuming Peter Milliken is re-elected Speaker).

For those who haven't followed, SES/Nanos were the only pollsters to be bang-on in the 2004 and 2006 elections.

Daily results are posted at 2pm in the left-hand column here.

L-girl said...

Well, if you plug yesterday's Nanos numbers (34/31/18/6/11) into the Hill and Knowltown Election Predictor

Yes, as ImpStrump linked to in comments yesterday. Beautiful!

DemocraticSPACE is not as optimistic, but it's still looking a whole hell of a lot better than it did two weeks ago.

Scott M. said...

Nanos is out, and he's showing the Conservatives down 1 and the Liberals down 2.

Applied generally Nationally in the election Predictor shows a 10 seat Conservative plurality.

BUT: Look at the regional breakdown. The Libs lost a tinge of support in Western Canada, and a fair bit in Atlantic Canada.

Conservatives lost support in Atlantic Canada and Ontario.

What does it all mean for seat count?

In Ontario CPC loses 30 seats, down to 10 seats for the province
Liberals gain 31 seats, up to 85.

Quebec would go almost completly Bloc, with only two seats going to the Liberals, zero to the Conservatives.

Another interesting thing released today is Nanos' numbers for "second choice".

JakeNCC said...

Here's the plan IF the Tories get a minority: Defeat the government on the first confidence vote and then Mr. Dion and Mr. Layton form a coalition and go to the Governor-General and ask to form government. Perfectly legal and doable. Mr. Dion would be Prime Minister and Mr. Layton pulls to the left where he belongs and we have the best government since Trudeau.

OR we could just elect an NDP majority. That would work too.

JakeNCC said...

I meant to say that Mr. Layton would pull Mr. Dion to the left.

Kim_in_TO said...

That would be sweet.