we move to canada
OK Laura - Deal!(but you realize that this means you now have to hang in there till the last Con is stopped out here in Lotusland)RossK.
You got it! I'm putting on the coffee. Here for the duration.
THAT's the way to watch returns! Love it.
According to the crawl on the bottom of the fragmented Atlantic CBC I'm still kind of getting, Student Vote went:Conservative 100 NDP 66 Liberal 54Green 44I don't think Student Vote has ever gone Conservative before ever!
I will try not to let that panic me.
Test test... is this thing on?
It is on!
Sorry, I lied, actually Student Vote did go Conservative last time. (I really have to learn to google stuff instead of working from memory when I'm, you know, ON the INTERNET)Last time it was:Conservative 128NDP 64Liberal 52Bloc 34Someone needs to make a website that will project real election results from Student Vote results.Or maybe we can calculate swing from this! /me runs off to play with Hill and Knowlton
Okay, Hill and Knowlton's swing predictor isn't terribly nuanced. But the Conservatives dropped 20ish% from last Student Vote to this one, and a bunch of Green seats showed up. And Libs and NDP are about the same. So if we swing 20% of the Conservatives over to Green, it's a very rough calculation but has a pretty result.
Oh ha, that's beautiful! "Not bloody likely", as we say, but lovely to look at.
A very rough split calculation using the Student Vote results. The problem is that this year's had Green seats and last year's had Bloc seats, so I just split the difference between the two parties (since they were more or less both at 9-10% in other polls)
Well the blackout seems to be working well. I can't find anything. Last election I found a blogger from New Brunswick who posted the early results.
I'm anxious to see the PEI results. That will be a good early barometer. Their 4 seats are Liberal and have been for a long time but the Tories were hoping to steal a seat here.By the way, I love election nights.
My fragmented TV tells me there's results on Twitter, but I don't know how to search Twitter by subject as opposed to by user.
Our game is sucking so far. I gotta hope the Liberals fare better than the Sox tonight, at least as of right now.
Better Twitter (and I remembered to do HTML like a grownup this time)
The Conservatives have actually picked up a couple of seats in New Brunswick. Thanks for nothing, Herring Chokers.On the bright side, it looks like the Conservatives have been shut out in NL. Oh, and my MP, Bill Casey, retained his seat with a huge majority. He's running as an independent.
Lisa Marie Presley just had twins and named them Finley and Harper.I wonder if anyone has told her what those names mean in Canada
For real, those are the names?? That is hilarious and spooky!
2006 Atlantic Canada was 19 Libs, 9 Tories, 3 NDP, 1 IND. so far this year its 17-10-4-1. Steve has actually picked up a seat. F***
Lib - 17Con - 10NDP - 4Direct from Nova Scotia. Nfld...went Lib, but Cons picked up a few elsewhere
My last comment was supposed to go on Joy of Sox. I'm all confused!2006 Atlantic Canada was 19 Libs, 9 Tories, 3 NDP, 1 IND. so far this year its 17-10-4-1. Steve has actually picked up a seat. F***FUCK
How certain are those numbers? Are they the current standings or projected winners?
Four out of the last six to be legible in my fragmented crawl were "hold" (which i think means they're far enough ahead that they've definitely won?)
Last I saw, only two races were in doubt. They were both seesawing between Lib and Tory.
I think Hold just means the incumbent won.Usually they do something like put a big honkin' checkmark beside the ones they're calling as "won" and they're no longer waiting for more results. For many ridings that happens when the first poll reports (e.g. 27 of 28 Alberta ridings -- go Edm/Strath!).
It will be SO cool if Linda Duncan wins! We're all so connected to it because of I/P.
They've got checkmarks with Hold and checkmarks with Gain. I don't know these ridings well enough to tell who's the incumbent. These things really need a legend.
Yeah, and I'll be watching w/ the TV on mute and a ballgame on. So I really need a good legend. Starting in 4 minutes.
Over to channel 6 now.Dear CBC: please release the live results function on your website so I can get all set up, I've got like 10 ridings I want to track
Yup, CBC now. Here we go.
I see Mackay kept his seat.
More useless information: the Atlantic Canada split applied to the country as a whole
Yes, more lovely useless information.
Allan just looked up at the TV and said, I see we're on pace for a Liberal majority.Lots of "on pace" in baseball. It applies just as well as it does here.
I want Elizabeth May to be PM just because it would be awesome to have such a fun and awesome PM.
When CBC posts the returns on the bottom of the screen, are those finals? If so, I just saw Tony Clement keep his riding by a wide margin.
I think she'd make a great PM, as long as she had a cabinet that balanced out her weaknesses. I'd also love to live in a country that would elect her!
Those aren't the finals, those are what has been counted so far.They're counted by hand, starting at 9:30 pm. I'm really surprised that anything at all is in yet.There should be a total of about 100,000 votes in an Ontario riding.
Are the results at the bottom in any particular order? Sometimes they seem alphabetical, sometimes they seem geographica. sometimes they seem random
Excellent, thank you. Of course, counting by hand! Paper ballots! Hurrah. Thanks.
I can't tell. They seem random to me, but my geography isn't great.
They're counted by handyes please. May I have one of those?
My mum is counting ballots by hand right this very minute.
My mum is counting ballots by hand right this very minute.I'd be pleased as punch to do the same, trust me.
Rob, when you say "GO Harper!", I assume you're hoping he goes into another profession besides politics?
Oh, I see Rob's post was shoved overboard. Now my response just looks silly.
I took moderation off, but I'm not letting in any Tory riff raff.
John, it still looks great to me. :)
WTF no NDP votes whatsoever yet in St. Paul's?
Good for you, L-Girl. "Tory riff-raff", I like that. FRANK, a political magazine published on the East coast, always refers to them as the "Tory Pig-Dog party".
Olivia's winning but Jack is not. These seat projections are giving me a headache.Tory 62 / Lib 51 / NPD 18 right now.Make that 63 / 52.
Yeah John, it has to be fun or what's the point. And it's not fun if the other side is hanging out too.
It looks like the ridings at the bottom are alphabetical, but they skip ones they don't have any results yet for.Liberal is ahead of Dinae Finley at the moment.
That's good news!
I just my own riding, Liberal well ahead.
Liberal vote down 7.7% in Ontario so far. Not good.
Kennedy and Nash are perfectly tied.And Wendy Mesley's eye makeup is awesome.
If there's another Conservative govt, one of my least favourite things will be the calls for the NDP to "merge" with the Liberals, and people blaming NDP supporters for not getting behind Dion. I hate that shit.
Did you know that Peter Mansbridge and Wendy Mesley (sp?) used to be married? She's the Quebec reporter tonight. Everytime I see them talk I wonder how uncomfortable it is. Maybe not at all. Just some worthless gossipy-trivia.
I see Rob just came back with the standard whiny rhetoric, and the standard fundamental misunderstanding of free speech. Hi Rob! Bye Rob!
Rob, this is not a democracy. It's my house. You're not invited.
That's one little bit of gossip-trivia I actually did know! I think I read it on Wikipedia once.
Yeah, I'm always looking at their facial expressions when they're tlaking to each other. Although news anchors probably have acting skills.Now they have to pretend to start over for BC.
Oh come on, at least pRETEND to have a bit of suspense for a few minutes instead of calling it the instant BC polls close!
I don't mean to be alarmist but the Tories might get majority or close to it. Ontario is being way to good to Steve. And I think you'll see calls for a "coalition" not a "merger".
Sorry, I shouldn't be using your blog as a medium to shout at the TV through.
There's not a right-wing whine I haven't heard. There's only a zillion places to post on the internet. But if he can't post here, his rights are being infringed. *yawn*
It was a hopeless hope, but I was really hoping May would take her riding. I think she's great, and Peter McKay is a stinkin' smarmy sexist turncoat liar. He gives me the creeps. I would have loved to have seen him lose.I am sitting in front of CBC with a list of the battleground ridings in hand, but the reception is bad, I lost my glasses, it's often hard to keep up anyways, and so am having a hard time knowing what to think!I've counted votes by hand as a poll clerk. It takes some time. Honestly, it's way better than Diebold, but after being on my feet for 12 hours, I really was not counting quickly...or well!
Imp Strump, no problem.JakeNCC, I hear lots of calls for mergers - and the abolition of the NDP! A coalition would be fantastic. I'd love it. But the whining that the NDP should pack up drives me nuts.
Sorry, I shouldn't be using your blog as a medium to shout at the TV throughDunno, we do a lot of that over at Allan's blog, after all.
Off-topic but: One of my favourite bits on 22 Minutes was the time Marg Delahunty invaded the CBC Broadcast Centre in Toronto. She barged into Wendy Mesley's studio, looked her up and down, and said, "My God, here's nothin' to ya, dear! You're like a fart in the mist!" Mesley doubled over in a fit of laughter.
Lisa, me too. Mackay is nauseating.
G&M's individual riding tracker is now online but slow
There's still 69 seats to report and all Harper has to do is win 47 of them for majority and most of those seats are probably in the West. F***
Dunno, we do a lot of that over at Allan's blog, after allIt's what a game thread is all about.
It was a hopeless hope, but I was really hoping May would take her riding. I think she's great, and Peter McKay is a stinkin' smarmy sexist turncoat liar. He gives me the creeps. I would have loved to have seen him lose.Tell it! The only person in this country who probably has less use for McKay than I do is David Orchard.
Come on, let's leave off the majority talk until it happens, ok? There are a lot of votes still to be counted.
Apparently Liz May just went down in defeat to "Elmer McKay".Okay, my friend may have misheard..this is just what he yelled up to me..Maybe Peter is tired.
I've started switching over to your election coverage on commercials. Can't be worse than this baseball game.
I have the game on the radio but I'm barely listening. Every time I tune in, the Rays have gotten a few more runs.
Apparently Liz May just went down in defeat to "Elmer McKay".In the earlier broadcast (to Atlantic Canada only), Rick Mercer called Elmer McKay the Boss Hogg of Central Nova. I guess Rick's still funny once in a while.
Agree Laura on the NDP, I voted NDP today.The BLoc vote at 36 is awfully low. Maybe some of those not reported ridings are in Quebec. That's a ray of sunshine I hope.
CBC riding tracker map
It's what a game thread is all about.And what is this, if not a game thread? (Though no one is threatening to break any tory toes yet here.)
I'm looking forward to Fair Vote Canada's reconfiguration. Or whatever you call it, showing what the returns would look like under a fair system.
I should add that Elmer MacKay is Peter McKay's father. He won the riding seven times before passing the robe and sceptre on to Peter.
Dear CBC riding tracker: please let us track ridings we don't know the postal code for
Olivia Chow neck and neck w/ the Liberal Innis.
Olivia is losing. wow. But its only 2 votes.
This is definitely a game thread.
If this trend keeps up, I'll have to put moderation back on to keep out gloaters.
Anyone noted Ottawa centre? I've missed it every time... I've seen Parkdale/High Park and it's different each time (go nash)
OMG holy shit cons are leading in EG LAWRENCE!That's across the street from me!
Jen: the two last links I posted will show you individual riding results
Jen, what are the candidates' names so I can look for them?
Leah wonders how soon a Liberal leadership change will occur
It's weird to me that more people don't see through Harper and his cohorts.Thank you, choir. The sermon is concluded.
It is weird. I agree. Jen, re Leah's question, I think as soon as it can possibly be done.
Yeeg, 101 comments by the time I see the post... :)
Yeah, I don't grok why exactly they're getting votes, like, at all.
I can't believe Tony Clement is going to keep his riding. He barely won it in the first place, he's been a disgrace, and he's going to be re-elected???
James: you can skip all mine, I'm just drunkenly brain-dumping.Now Libs are back ahead in eg-lawrence, which makes much better sense
James, a bunch of us are watching the returns together. The Red Sox are getting creamed and so are the Liberals.
I take comfort in Bill Casey's win, not that it was in any real doubt. Our election of an ex-Tory as an independent is a giant middle finger raised towards Ottawa.
Rae won, Layton won, Chow's leading
Olivia's ahead now. Whew.
Thanks ImpStrump. Dewar (NDP) leads as expected in Ottawa Centre. Thanks. Liking Keith Bouge's analysis of how majority may not happen. Yay Hope!
Finley is winning. Lisa Raitt is kicking Garth Turner's butt in Halton. Lisa Raitt was the head of the Toronto Port Authority...NOT a democratic organization. The Liberal Maria Minna in my riding is winning. I like her quite a lot, so not so bad, though the NDP competitor Marilyn Churley is very good, and if Minna wasn't such a strong candidate Churley could have taken this.. The Conservatives are doing wellish in Ontario..!Okay, calm down, it's not over yet!
CBC is showing 130 blue seats now. I feel sick.
Chow's leading now??!Yey! I better go back downstairs...!
Oops, they just subtracted one seat.
"I feel sick."Me too.
They just showed Linda Duncan well behind, but in 2nd place, and very few polls in.In other words, meaningless.
CBC is showing 130 blue seats now.I feel sick.Take heart! As long as it doesn't hit 155, we're no worse off than we've been.
WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE???? WHY ARE YOU VOTING FOR THEM????sorryhad to
John F, not really. I think a smaller minority - fewer seats - would have meant something. A stronger minority means something too.Of course a majority is the worst, but I do think sub-126 seats would be meaningful.
WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE???? WHY ARE YOU VOTING FOR THEM????This.Also:Sorry, I shouldn't be using your blog as a medium to shout at the TV through.Drink!
CBC website calls Carolyn Bennett as elected. Take that brake-line cutters!
I see your point, L-Girl. I'm just saying that any kind of Tory minority has got to be better than any kind of Tory majority.
m@: you're right, that's why I was shouting at the TV in the first place.
How much of this is down to people's dislike of Dion, I wonder?
John F, very very very true.
How much of this is down to media's portrayal of Dion as unlikeable I wonder?
OK, I'm wimping out on this thread. I work early, and it's late here in "Culture of Defeat" country (Harper's words, not mine). I'll go drift off to the CBC Radio coverage. Keep the faith, everyone!
Justin Trudeau is winning. Personally I loved his father.
I just saw that snake Bruce Stanton from Simcoe North kept his seat. He's one of the ones we've been targetting in the resisters campaign.
G'night John! Thanks for hanging out tonight.
Heh, Bloc is beating Fortier **schadenfreude**
Whoo! Fortier probably lost in his riding. He's off to the dung-heap of opportunistic politics.
How much of this is down to media's portrayal of Dion as unlikeable I wonder?Ah yes, much better phrasing, thank you.
"Take that brake-line cutters!"Oh, totally, drink up!!(that was hilarious)Yes, the fact that the Conservatives have more seats than before is symbolically important. To them. 134 seats!!!!!!!!
I'm too angry to comment on Clement btw...
I/S: great minds &c. &c.
Oh, I realize, I'm just not used to seeing 100+ comments on one of your posts.By the way, the CBCNews website has a good map up, if you haven't seen it. You can really see the urban/rural split in SW Ontario.
Finley is winning.crapLisa Raitt is kicking Garth Turner's butt in Halton. crap crapJust saw this now.
Do Jack and Olivia have to hang out at different headquarterses on election night? B/C it would suck to win an election and not have your spouse there
Finley's only 600 votes ahead though.
That last post sounded...wrong. I meant..I agree, and their larger seat counts are going to convince the Tories that even if it's a minority, they have an even bigger mandate. (is this what a game thread is like, really??. fun!! but not much time for editing, huh?)
Dear Bob Rae: the word constitutency sounds funny. Stop using it.
At our last campaign meeting, several people said they see Rae as the next Liberal leader (given a Tory govt). What do you all think of that? I thought Rae was the untouchable b/c of his NDP baggage.
I remember in the last election, Jack and Olivia were in the same place. Yes, this is what a game thread is like, but this is a bit more polite than our usual Sox threads.
G&M called the Bloc candidate in Fortier's riding
The question is, among Ontario voters, how many of the people who would never vote for Rae because he's Rae wouldn't vote Liberal anyway?
I wonder if Garth Turner has permission from the Maverick family to call himself a maverick? I hear the Maverick family vetoed the use of the word by some US politicos or something?
Right. I always think that too. "Those people would have voted Tory anyway."But that's less certain here (in Canada) than in the US. Many people don't have intense partisanship.
Peggy Nash behind.
Seriously re Maverick? Are you kidding me?
Rae = REALLY tough question. People in Ontario hate him, for largely stupid reasons. Some hate him for good reason, but some because...he introduced Rae days during a recession (unpaid days off for gov't workers..unions hated that). However, when Harris took the reins, he simply eliminated the jobs altogether. I don't know, Rae is very very smart, and way more charismatic than Dion. I was personally rooting for him during the Liberal leadership election. People outside of Ontario don't have such negative baggage about him, and I think he could convince centrist Canada that he's no longer a "crazy socialist" (I hate that I have to say that, but..).But I might be living in a dream world. I always thought that he'd be the best candidate. Def better than Iggy. My two cents :)
"The question is, among Ontario voters, how many of the people who would never vote for Rae because he's Rae wouldn't vote Liberal anyway?"Yes. Totally.
I like Bob Rae a lot. I just worry about his baggage, even though (from what I can tell) it's for mostly stupid reasons.
Re: maverick, I read it on the internet somewhere. Didn't bother to fact check it, but it seems like something that could be credible
Also in game threads there are usually 3 or 4 or 5 off-topic conversations going on at once, personal stories and such. Baseball gives you the opportunity for that.
Smirkiest photo of harper ever!
Seriously re Maverick? Are you kidding me?I could be so lucky.
I wasn't fully politically aware when Rae was premier. (I knew that people didn't like him, I couldn't objectively assess why.) Reading what happened during that era as history, it doesn't sound nearly as bad as people were making it out to be. But I wasn't fully politically aware and I obviously wasn't in the workforce at the time.
146 nowI AM SICK
I. Cannot. Believe.Tony Clement. Cannot believe.
Dear CBC: let's have captions so we can see the name of the person who's talking please
Imp, thanks! You know, a while back, I saw a headline on CBC, "McCain No Maverick", and didn't bother to click. I mean, I already knew that, so why bother.
Jim Flaherty is little!
Captions, yeah, esp since I'm watching on mute. But the Red Sox are almost done getting thrashed, so I will turn on sound soon.
Brilliant! That's very funny. Thanks - I think I skipped that for the same reason Laura did.
My mum says that as they finish counting each poll (i.e. each box of votes) they phone elections canada, and then elections canada passes the info on to the media. So that's how the media gets small results so quickly - usually it's polls that don't have many votes in them are finished being counted first.
Is Blogger back up?
Yes. Red Sox had a bad night.Liberals had a bad night. I'm way more upset about the Liberals.
Ultimately the liberals are more important. (Don't tell anyone I sad that.)
I guess Blogger ruined our game thread. Well, that and the fucking Tories.
Blogger really has bad timing.
Sigh, I've been drowning myself in margaritas all night. At LEAST it's a minority....sigh. hopefully Harper takes the cue and shuts up and governs for 2 years. I'm hoping Kennedy wins the Liberal Leadership and they come back to kick the Conservative's ass
I remember Rae in power, and how much we loved him, and the amazing hope we held out when he was elected. I was also politically unaware back in those days, but I do remember the flip flop on car insurance. That was a huge betrayal and one of the main issues still cited when people talk about his time as premier. The other one I was well aware of was his part in rising university tuition.My regard for the liberal party is the same as the discussion here of the democrats in the US: I don't see much changing when they are in power. So Rae's move to the liberals was a very significant statement for me. These days, when I look at the liberal party's (in)action on so many issues, I look at Rae and I get the feeling that he always was a liberal at heart. I've just been stung too many times. I'm in his riding, and I always vote NDP. It's a good thing it's not a close race in Toronto Centre, because I could never vote for him.I would prefer him over Ignatief ("Mr. Iraq War") any day, though.
CBC shows Olivia Chow elected. Unfortunately, Peggy Nash is not, although I think there are worse people to lose to than Gerard Kennedy.
Oh, in case it's not crystal clear, I feel the same way. I will vote NDP as soon as I am able.But in terms of who forms the govt in Canada, the Liberal leadership is very important. I'd much rather have Bob Rae than many other Liberals, and I'd rather have anyone over Ignatieff.We need the Liberals to rebuild and be strong because we must defeat the Conservatives. But I have no illusions about what a Liberal govt would mean.Of course I'm thinking a lot about the war resisters. A Liberal govt would have won for us.Also the Liberals are a far sight better than the Democrats, and that's down to the presence of the NDP.
I can't get too excited about Gerard Kennedy, since he defeated Peggy Nash.
I wish I had the NDP to vote for.
I wish you did too.
I've been having a bit of a chat with someone who voted Conservative from an Anything-But-Dion platform. This person tells me that they find Harper's childcare policies beneficial and that he has increased staffing in certain areas of health care (this person is/has been/expects to be both a worker in and a consumer of child care and health care). They also believe Harper has the best plan for dealing with economic turmoil (they were unable to provide me with a link at the moment - I haven't seen said plan - but promised one tomorrow) and think that our current economic turmoil is no state in which to introduce the green shift. They also lack confidence in Mr. Dion's ability to perform on the international stage in light of that one CTV interview, although they hadn't read my discourse analysis when making this assesment. This interview was conducted and reported as neutrally as possible in my current inebriated state (although the person I was tlaking to is well aware of my political leanings)
Gay conservative (how does that work?) Lorne Mayencourt is losing in Vancouver Centre, although it's early yet. I saw the video of him losing his cool during a Q&A. There's not much scarier to me than someone who's so confused that he's gay and still thinks Harper is a great guy.
Thanks Imp Strump. That's pretty much what I would think: ignorance.Gay conservatives are always a mystery. But it shows you how you can't stereotype.
Fuck those CTV scumbags for that devious little ploy.I watched that interview, and I have to say I really like the way Dion handled himself in all the confusion (over the badly phrased question). He came across to me as having a good sense of humour.
They also believe Harper has the best plan for dealing with economic turmoil (they were unable to provide me with a link at the moment - I haven't seen said planHas the Shithead even bothered to release it yet?
Dear person who's currently interpeting for Jack Layton: he's just repeating what he said earlier.(This is why I don't interpret professionally, I'd make an ass of myself on a daily basis)
I'm watching Jack's speech now, and I'm proud to live somewhere where this party can thrive. I can't wait to vote!!
I do expect the person I was talking to to email me something tomorrow and I'll link it here when I get it. But I have been looking for it (b/c people have been talking lik eit's SO FUCKING OBVIOUS) and I haven't seen it, so I very much look forward to it.And Jack and Oliva are in the same place os YAY!
Well, it gives me something to focus on anyway. Something to hope for, on this very shitty night.
We could use your vote!
Could be shittier. I remember Mulroney winning. I watched the returns, went to bed, and woke up and actually thought, "the world didn't end."
Kim has articulated everything I would have mentioned about Rae, except that he rode a majority government into a deficit government unlike Ontario has ever seen. The worst of the Harris years (and yes, they were bad years) was only a third of Ontario's worst deficit under Rae, and only half of their best deficit.Then again -- yes, he's a good speaker and I like him as a person. Yes, he's far, far better than Ignatieff as a political leader.On the other hand, I'd probably take Kennedy before Rae, and I'd definitely take Dryden before the whole pack of 'em.Then again, my hopes and dreams were with Dion from an early point in the Liberal leadership campaign. The proof of the pudding is in the eating, and there's some bad pudding on the table tonight. I don't trust my judgment any more.Sigh.
Here's Ignatieff talking about what a different Parliament it will be. What, rolling over didn't work for you? Giving Harper a de facto majority wasn't such a good plan?
iggy has a weird voice.
Someone sent me at work an analysis proposing that this parliament is going to die on the first confidence vote (it was written earlier today, assuming a conservative minority). Again, I'll post it tomorrow, it's in my work email.
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