10.13.2008

final seat projections

DemocraticSPACE and the Election Prediction Project have both posted their final seat projections. [Now updated.]

DemocraticSPACE:
Conservative 128
Liberal 92
NDP 34
Bloc 52
Green 0
Other 2

Election Prediction:
Conservative 125
Liberal 94
NDP 36
Bloc 51
Other 2

I suppose I should give up hoping for my own prediction to come true, but I won't do that until the final poll closes.

20 comments:

M@ said...

Don't give up just yet. Martin's win in 2004 was a surprise. There's every possibility that it can still turn around.

And here's my prediction: the CPC will not win as many seats as they held (127) when the election was called.

Stephanie said...

I support the dream L-girl!

You never know...

I remember the provincial election of 1990 when we elected an NDP majority under Bob Rae.

I don't think anybody expected that! Unfortunately the resulting government was much less spectacular.

L-girl said...

Thanks M@ & Steph! Believe me, I have not given up hope.

I also think it's important that they win fewer than 127 seats. I'd like to see a few cabinet ministers lose their ridings, too.

impudent strumpet said...

Election Prediction Project has now called the too-close-to-calls:

Conservative 125
Liberal 94
NDP 36
Bloc 51
Other 2

L-girl said...

Thanks, ImpStrump. Let's hope it really was too close to call, and they're wrong.

L-girl said...

I updated the post.

I'm nervous!!!

Kim_in_TO said...

It goes without saying that I want the consevatives out. But I'll at least hope for fewer seats for them, including a loss for Diane Finley...

JakeNCC said...

This election scares me to death because it's so unpredictable. On friday within minutes of each other The Star and The Globe and Mail had dueling headlines and polls. The Star said the Tories are in majority territory and the The G&M said the Tories have no shot at majority. Somebody is wrong.

I think Quebec is safe but Ontario could tilt this thing anywhere from Torie majority to Liberal minority. I'm also hoping for at least 50 NDP seats but I don't know.

L-girl said...

I would be beyond shocked if there was a Tory majority.

Kim_in_TO said...

What's happened to the DemocraticSPACE site?

M@ said...

Somebody is wrong.

Damn right. My question for anyone who talks about a CPC majority is "where are the seats?"

In the west, they've more or less sewn up Manitoba and Saskatchewan, and there aren't any more seats in Alberta for them to win (go Edm-Stratcona NDP!). The Libs have been almost totally kicked out BC, and with the NDP still polling strongly, there isn't much more the CPC can win in the west.

In the east, the CPC has lost ground steadily since 2006. It's unlikely they'll come out with more than 5 seats in the four atlantic provinces.

And in Quebec, their support from 2006 has gone mostly back to the Bloc (with a few votes going to the Liberals). Their 9 seats from 2006 will probably go down to 3, and certainly won't be over 5.

So that leaves seat-rich Ontario. And the CPC would have to win an extra 25 or 30 seats in Ontario, which would be, let us say, unlikely -- we're talking them taking 75% of the province, with the Liberals and NDP splitting 25 seats between them. Impossible.

I'm explaining this at length because I don't see it explained very often. The prevailing wisdom in Canada is that a party having somewhere around 40% support nationally will probably win a majority; that's what happened throughout Chretien's long run.

But the situation is different now. Unlike the Liberals, the CPC does not have strong national support, but regional support instead. Their high support is in the west, with middling to weak support as you move to the east.

So when you hear about majorities, you're usually hearing about the magical 40% number. What you need to see is 40% support across the country, something the CPC doesn't have anything close to in Quebec, and has only flirted with (at best) in Ontario.

Whew. Again, sorry to go on and on but I think the media are really doing us a disservice, talking about majorities based on completely irrelevant statistics. It bugs the hell out of me and I hope that others will start to question it too.

Andrea said...

I really hope the CPC doesn't win in my town. They are treating our town as a sure win and I would love to see an upset here. My wack town really needs to shake up a bit.
Mind you where I am we have the Christian Heritage Party. You want SCARY. AUGH! Halloween came early.

L-girl said...

What's happened to the DemocraticSPACE site?

Whoa! Did someone forget to pay the bill? Or were they hacked?

L-girl said...

M@, thanks so much for your very informative comment. Never any need to apologize, it's great stuff. Especially since it confirms what I've been thinking!

M@ said...

Andrea, I've been really surprised in my area (Kitchener-Waterloo) that there have been no Christian Heritage candidates, even. They used to be thick on the ground, even in the last provincial election. I believe the provincial party leader is from Kitchener in fact.

It's been nice not having to hear from them around here. Sorry you've got them out there.

For those who don't know the CHP, they're the ones who really sound like Republicans to the south. Not the way Harper does -- the way Mitt Romney does. They're nuts, of course, and at least here we treat them accordingly.

And Laura, I apologize because I think it's important information but I all too easily (or too readily?) fall into pedantry. Glad to know it was useful.

(And sorry about the Sox loss tonight! I'm sure you'll bounce back. After all, 3-0 is nothing to the Sox... :) )

L-girl said...

Mind you where I am we have the Christian Heritage Party. You want SCARY.

They get some votes in our riding too! Scare-ree!

Maybe your riding will surprise the CPC and go Lib. Let us know. :)

L-girl said...

I apologize because I think it's important information but I all too easily (or too readily?) fall into pedantry.

I guess it's all in the telling.

(And sorry about the Sox loss tonight! I'm sure you'll bounce back. After all, 3-0 is nothing to the Sox... :) )

It wasn't a fun game, for sure, but it's true, we've come back from worse. 1-2 is nothing for us. Win tomorrow!

JakeNCC said...

m@, thanks so much for that analysis. I'll sleep better tonight. What you say makes so much sense and yet we do not see that in the Globe or the Star which is where I get most of my mainstream news.

And Laura I'm also sorry the Sox lost. I know nothing about baseball but now when I see the scores I always look for the Sox score.

L-girl said...

I know nothing about baseball but now when I see the scores I always look for the Sox score.

Learning you are. Follow you must.

[Allan has been described as the yoda of Sox bloggers...]

But seriously, thanks JakeNCC. Tonight we must even the score.

David Heap said...

Mind you where I am we have the Christian Heritage Party.

In London too, alas. Their candidate hijacked too much time at our (otherwise pretty successful) Peace & Human Rights All Candidates Meeting, by bringing absolutely every issue back to "fetal rights". Depressing. On the bright (?) side, this individual has since become an independent, because his own party (CHP)finds him (wait for it) too single-issue. So even the lunatic fringe have a lunaticker fringe, I guess. Price of democracy?