we move to canada
Quebecers have elected the first minority government in nearly 130 years, voting Jean Charest's Liberals to power with the ADQ forming the official opposition. The Parti Quebecois finished third.
Thanks, Vicky. I meant opinions and comments on what the results might mean, for the present and the future. The results themselves are reported in the media, such as the story I linked to above.
Well, it's always nice to see the PQ lagging behind. I have to admit, though, I don't really know much about the ADQ.
The most immediate fallout of the election will be a quick federal election.The ADQ is more right-leaning both socially and fiscally, and so Stephen Harper will see this as an indication that Quebeckers are more willing to consider his party.In addition, a huge (massive!) chunk of Stephane Dion's potential platform has just disappeared. Had the Pequistes won, even a minority, Stephane Dion could have solidified both the hard and soft federalist vote in Quebec behind him for fear of another referendum. This will be seen within Quebec as nothing less than a vindication of Stephen Harper's view of federalism.What does that mean when it comes to all-important seat count?Well, it's unlikely Stephane Dion can commute a loss in Quebec into a majority. So we are left with three possibilities:- A Liberal minority (preferred, but unlikely)- Status quo (likely)- A Conservative majority (a distinct possibility).Yuck.
I think a Liberal minority is a strong possibility. Either that or another Conservative minority. Despite the results in Quebec, I don't think the Harper govt is going to come back with a majority.
My reaction: Wow. Wow. WOW.As I just said in my blog, in all my years of watching election returns like other people watch hockey, I have never seen anything quite that exciting.
Several of my readers have had some interesting insights.One of those readers is Scott M, and I agree with what he said here (and at F&V): A federal election is now more likely to happen soon, and to result in a Conservative majority. Not a guarantee, by any means, but more likely than it was.Idealistic Pragmatist: I agree!By the way, Vicky, Quebec voters have elected their first minority ever. (The one previous minority government in 1878 resulted from defections midterm.)
Well it seems that Quebecers don't think much of Boisclair. That was loud and clear. I don't think that sovereignists have abandoned the PQ entirely. As well, the federalist Liberals have worn out their welcome in Quebec. What saved the Liberals was the buffoon Boisclair. I think ADQ intrigued many Quebecers not so much as conservatives but because he promises Quebecers more autonomy within Canada instead of another referendum.I agree that Harper will interpret these results as good for him. I don't think Quebec shifted to the right but rather just looked for something fresh. So Harper may be disappointed.
I don't think Quebec shifted to the right but rather just looked for something fresh. So Harper may be disappointed.Similar to what Canada did in the last Federal election.
MSS, thanks for the F&V link. Wmtc readers interested in election analysis, you should know about Fruits & Votes.Plus MSS, I see Sports Illustrated is predicting a Freeway Series featuring red vs. blue SoCal teams.
Sports Illustrated is predicting a Freeway Series featuring red vs. blue SoCal teams.Uh, oh. Now we're jinxed!Now back to our originally scheduled thread...I agree that we should not interpret Quebec's shift as one to the right. It was a shift on a different dimension: the federalist-sovereigntist one. But a shift on that dimension benefits the federal Conservatives, and not only in Quebec.
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