1.02.2006

question

Do you think the RCMP insider-trading investigation will damage the Liberals' chances in the election? If so, how badly?

Is this investigation a big, fat Christmas gift for Stephen Harper's Conservatives?

Or does the big present (presence) of Stephen Harper himself ensure another Liberal minority government?

Please opine.

41 comments:

RobfromAlberta said...

I doubt it will make much difference at this point. First of all, we won't hear anything substantive until long after the election is over. Secondly, Canadians have already demonstrated that government corruption is tolerable. A little bit more corruption is not going to change anyone's mind on that.

James said...

Canadians have already demonstrated that government corruption is tolerable.

Well, government corruption is more tolerable than Stephen Harper.

In any case, this partuclar bit of government corruption seems pretty minor and esoteric, so I doubt it's going to change things much.

Not to mention that the contstant stream of reports of massive corruption coming from the Bush administration which never amount to anything kind of acts as a vaccine. "If Cheney never got busted for being on Halliburton's payroll while in office and while handing out no-bid contracts to Hallibruton, why should anyone be punished for this?"

One of the drawbacks to living next to the US, I suppose.

RobfromAlberta said...

Well, government corruption is more tolerable than Stephen Harper.

...in Ontario

L-girl said...

Well, government corruption is more tolerable than Stephen Harper.

I'll drink to that.

Not to mention that the contstant stream of reports of massive corruption coming from the Bush administration which never amount to anything kind of acts as a vaccine.

I don't know. From what I'm learning about Canadian history, politics here are as filled with corruption as everywhere else on earth, and there's nothing to say that the Tories would be cleaner than the Liberals. Depending on what era you look at, any party could be riddled with financial scandal.

Of course, I'm hoping Canadians are happy enough with the current stability and prosperity to leave the status quo. I'm not in love with these Liberals, but man, Harper is a bad joke.

Sure seems like bad timing with this investigation. If this happened in the US, I'd assume the Republicans were behind it. That's a difference, I suppose!

James said...

I don't know. From what I'm learning about Canadian history, politics here are as filled with corruption as everywhere else on earth, and there's nothing to say that the Tories would be cleaner than the Liberals.

True enough. And, historically, neither the Tories nor the Grits have ever shown themselves to be better than the others. I suspect that the NDP doesn't have a history of corruption behind it largely because it's never had the opportunity.

But still, when compared to the outrages that percolate up from south of the border every day, it's hard to get too excited about something like this leak.

Well, government corruption is more tolerable than Stephen Harper.

...in Ontario


If it were only in Ontario, it'd be an easy win for the Tories, since Ontario has only 1/3 of the seats in Parliament.

L-girl said...

But still, when compared to the outrages that percolate up from south of the border every day, it's hard to get too excited about something like this leak.

Eeyup. For better or worse, the comparison does make Canada look very clean.

The same could be said of so many issues - the recent murders in Toronto, for example. It's a terrible trend, no doubt, yet Toronto still looks peaceful compared to large US cities. Again, for better or worse.

It's the old "Canada's less worse" thing.

David Cho said...

Oh, Canadian politics.

Sounded very juicy, but then I realized it wasn't American.

Lone Primate said...

Well, government corruption is more tolerable than Stephen Harper.

...in Ontario


Don't like it? Move to Arkansas.

RobfromAlberta said...

Don't like it? Move to Arkansas.

See L-girl, it's not only in America.

Lone Primate said...

See L-girl, it's not only in America.

More importantly, it's not only a solution for Americans. :)

L-girl said...

Don't like it? Move to Arkansas.

See L-girl, it's not only in America.

More importantly, it's not only a solution for Americans. :)


Oh no! It's Wmtc Bizarro World, with Lone Primate playing the part of the American Wingnut, and Rob playing the part of the disgruntled lefty...!

Lone Primate said...

No, here, it's the lefties who shoo the wingnuts. I guess I'm just a little fed up having to take "one party state" guff from a place that hasn't changed its electoral shorts since I was born, and corruption cracks from a place that wholeheartedly supported a Mulroney government whose cabinet couldn't cross the hall to take a piss without someone slipping in sh!t, that's all. :)

L-girl said...

No, here, it's the lefties who shoo the wingnuts.

I knew I came to right place. :D

(Not that I'm calling you a wingnut, Rob. You're living proof that there is such a thing as conservative sanity.)

RobfromAlberta said...

a place that wholeheartedly supported a Mulroney government

Bullsh*t! Alberta kicked Mulroney's ass just as thoroughly as the rest of Canada in '93. You don't like the choice they made, but at least they threw the rascals out. If Ontarions want to punish the Liberal corruption (which they don't), they can always vote NDP.

nataleo said...

Well I will give credit where credit is due....the first leg of the campaign was marked with Harper making mostly announcements (which may or may not be beneficial) instead of slinging mud 100% of the time which is what I expected. Now, having said that, when one looks at the polls as of late (within the past few days..32% Liberal 30% Conservative) it is pretty obvious to me, that they have played every angle and will not make progress as long as Harper is at the helm. He produced what I thought to be a mostly pleasing platform with zero results in the polls-doesn't that say something??

RobfromAlberta said...

Not that I'm calling you a wingnut, Rob.

Wingnuts, moonbats, freepers, I really can't keep up with all the labels. I make up my mind on each issue individually. If that makes me a wingnut on military spending and a moonbat on same-sex marriage, well so be it. I live to confound. :)

RobfromAlberta said...

it is pretty obvious to me, that they have played every angle and will not make progress as long as Harper is at the helm

Preston Manning, Stockwell Day, Stephen Harper, it doesn't matter who the leader is, eastern Canada will not tolerate a western Conservative PM. It's as simple as that. We Albertans are a slow-witted bunch, but we're catching on.

nataleo said...

"Preston Manning, Stockwell Day, Stephen Harper, it doesn't matter who the leader is, eastern Canada will not tolerate a western Conservative PM "

I don’t see it as being that clear cut where you say that it’s because they are western…I see it more this way:

If one day the Bloq merged with the Liberals, do you think that Gilles Duceppe could ever be seen as a an option as Liberal leader?


Before the merge, the Conservative support base would have been fairly large and national in comparison to the Reform party support which was regional and virtually non-existant in the rest of the country. IMHO, for this new Conservative party to fly, they needed to elect a leader who was not so closely affiliated with either party.

L-girl said...

Wingnuts, moonbats, freepers, I really can't keep up with all the labels. I make up my mind on each issue individually.

Which right away takes you out of the running. :) I don't use "wingnut" as a label so much as an insult. It's someone with a closed mind and an always-open (shouting) mouth, consummately misinformed, who lives to shout down the other side, clinging to slogans, facts be damned. I.e., the Fox crew.

Echo Mouse said...

I have to thank you for attracting Rob and Lone Primate. Their comments alone are fun :) lol

Personally, remembering Mulroney, before and after his rule, I'll never trust the Cons. Let's not forget that twit (Mulroney) sued the government and had no problem ripping off Canadians, all to protect his ego.

Harper is an idiot and a scary one at that. If recent polls showing him leading Ontario are correct, I'm going to have a heart attack by the time voting day arrives. He's a nightmare. I'm not thrilled with the Liberals, but compared to the alternatives, they're the best we've got. Just my opinion of course.

Andrea said...

I get more info about the election from you all then from the news. It is great. My father and I are in this feud over who should win, my theory is anyone but Harper. He keeps telling me to give my head a shake.
Maybe I should tell him to read you guys to get a little more of an all around opinion.
Please, keep it up, I LOVE it!!!

James said...

Preston Manning, Stockwell Day, Stephen Harper, it doesn't matter who the leader is, eastern Canada will not tolerate a western Conservative PM. It's as simple as that. We Albertans are a slow-witted bunch, but we're catching on.

These days, though, "Conservative" is the deal killer, not "western".

And I don't think it's fiscal conservativism that's the problem either. It's the social conservatism.

Now, if the west can only produce social conservatives, then chances are the east will never go for them. But again, that'd be not because they're western, but because they're social conservatives.

After all, eastern Canada didn't have any problem helping name westerner Tommy Douglas as the Greatest Canadian. :)

Lone Primate said...

Alberta kicked Mulroney's ass just as thoroughly as the rest of Canada in '93.

Yeah, after you gave us the boon of the Reform Party. It's '88 I'm talking about -- where Alberta gave 25 of its 26 seats to Mulroney, and 51.8% of the popular vote. Ontario gave 46 of its 99 seats to them, and only 38.2% of the vote to them (with 43 seats to the Grits, and 10 to the NDP, if anyone's counting). So enough, if you please, of the "Ontario only votes one way" stuff -- it's the pot calling the kettle black. And, as I said, the Mulroney government weaved from scandal to scandal over nine years, and that seemed to suit Albertans just fine till they realized Quebec was getting all the donuts. So enough of the crap about us giving corruption a pass, too.

Lone Primate said...

Preston Manning, Stockwell Day, Stephen Harper, it doesn't matter who the leader is, eastern Canada will not tolerate a western Conservative PM. It's as simple as that. We Albertans are a slow-witted bunch, but we're catching on.

That must come as news to Joe Clark. Not to mention Diefenbaker. What most of Canada, east and west, doesn't want is someone who's going to parachute Leave It to Beaver Christian ethos into our lives in the guise of legislation. When Alberta can come up with that kind of guy again, hey. But till then... slow-witted? Well, hell, you said it yourself. Manning, Day, Harper... catch on already.

IMHO, for this new Conservative party to fly, they needed to elect a leader who was not so closely affiliated with either party.

Exactly. Bernard Lord is the kind of pre-Muldoon Tory I could actually vote for. But he's not Calgarian enough, I guess, since Alberta clearly believes they own the Conservative Party now and the rest of us owe it an election. So here we are, unable to elect a sensible Tory government because the only Tories we've been offered for 15 years are not really a federal party but are in essence the Bloc Alberta.

And I don't think it's fiscal conservativism that's the problem either.

Clearly. Martin is probably the most fiscally-conservative prime minister we've had since... I don't know... Diefenbaker, maybe? At least since Pearson.

James said...

Martin is probably the most fiscally-conservative prime minister we've had since... I don't know... Diefenbaker, maybe? At least since Pearson.

'course, Pearson gave us the Canada Pension Plan and universal health care, as well as the student loans program. :)

L-girl said...

I have to thank you for attracting Rob and Lone Primate. Their comments alone are fun

I take no credit. All I can do is hope they stick around!

Harper is an idiot and a scary one at that. If recent polls showing him leading Ontario are correct, I'm going to have a heart attack by the time voting day arrives.

Ditto! And I can't even vote!! I know by now that I would vote NDP, but if there was a chance my riding would go Conservative, I'd absolutely vote Liberal - even though I'm lukewarm towards them.

Please, keep it up, I LOVE it!!!

Even though it's not my doing, I will say thank you on behalf of the wmtc gang. :)

Preston Manning, Stockwell Day, Stephen Harper, it doesn't matter who the leader is, eastern Canada will not tolerate a western Conservative PM.

These days, though, "Conservative" is the deal killer, not "western".

And I don't think it's fiscal conservativism that's the problem either. It's the social conservatism.


This is my reading of it, too. I've learned a lot about the regional differences, jealousies and squabbles, but the enmity directed at Stephen Harper has little to do with where he's from. To say that Harper is hated because he's from Western Canada is disingenuous.

It's also insulting (though probably unintentionally) to everyone who pays attention to the issues and makes informed choices - which seems to be most people, by my observations.

Lone Primate said...

As far as the investigation goes... yes, it's looking like it's going to cost the Liberals. Their numbers are affected to their detrement in Ontario, regardless of Rob's impression of 12.5 million necks with one head. It's starting to look to me like we might get a bare Tory minority.

Now I'm not sure exactly what that means. It could mean the Liberals and NDP form some sort of two-year coalition government. The only real likely alternative is that the Tories fly solo, and in that case, we're probably back in election city the first time the NDP doesn't get what it wants in the budget. The only possible remedy to that is if the Tories co-opt the Bloc, and all-too-likely possibility in the tradition of Mulroney and Bouchard. What that would cost the country is too sobering.

At a rough guess, I'm thinking bare Tory minority, struggling, as the Liberals have been, to manage to cobble together enough support to get by week by week. That probably won't last. The upshot is that the Liberals will probably need to regroup, and quickly, since another election is probably less than two years in the future. In that time, Martin will probably have to resign, and the Liberals will have to come up with someone who inspires confidence and isn't connected to the government too closely, and then build on that in the run up to an election. I think that means bringing in an outsider... one of the former premiers, say... though the name that springs to mind is Justin Trudeau. He's very young and untested, but in this case, those are his strongest attributes. The Grits need an overhaul.

On the flip side, I think this is Harper's last chance. If he doesn't form a government, I think the same fate will befall him. He'll have to quit, and the Tories will need to find someone with wider national appeal. I've mentioned Bernard Lord; I'm almost certain he's been waiting in the wings for the right moment. He didn't want to be the guy to face the job of reuniting the Conservative Party -- frankly, a thankless job that was probably never going to lead to 24 Sussex Drive and would likely be a career-killer (well, we'll see, I guess...). But now might be his chance.

'course, Pearson gave us the Canada Pension Plan and universal health care, as well as the student loans program. :)

Yes, but as I recall, he also left the country with a balanced budget -- or close enough as makes no odds. That may have been more a function of the times than his stewardship, though, I'll admit.

Lone Primate said...

Make that "detriment". Figures I wouldn't check that till AFTER I pushed the button. >:/

RobfromAlberta said...

It's starting to look to me like we might get a bare Tory minority.

I doubt it. I predict the Conservatives will actually lose seats in Ontario this time around. The Liberals will also lose a few in Quebec, but will likely gain a handful in Ontario, BC and Atlantic Canada, so they should probably maintain their seat count at current levels, with the Tories and Dippers dropping a few.

If, on the other hand, Paul Martin kills someone in a hit-and-run between now and Jan.23, the Conservatives might squeak through with a razor-thin minority and we will have another election before the end of this calendar year.

L-girl said...

If, on the other hand, Paul Martin kills someone in a hit-and-run between now and Jan.23, the Conservatives might squeak through with a razor-thin minority and we will have another election before the end of this calendar year.

:D

This reminds me of something. Some sports pundits are saying the Blue Jays will win the AL East this year. Allan and I agree that's possible - if both the Yankees' and Red Sox' planes crash.

I hope you're right, Rob, and the Conservatives' chances are no more than the Blue Jays'.

RobfromAlberta said...

Truth be told, I hope the Conservatives get killed in eastern Canada. It would really clear the air out here.

Lone Primate said...

If, on the other hand, Paul Martin kills someone in a hit-and-run between now and Jan.23, the Conservatives might squeak through...

I'm not sure that's necessarily a fatal (pardon the pun) liability in Canadian politics... From Wikipedia:

On February 6, 1977, [René] Lévesque's car fatally struck Edgar Trottier, a homeless man who had been lying on the road. The incident gained extra notoriety when it was revealed that the female companion in the vehicle was not his wife, but a secretary named Corinne Côté. Lévesque’s marriage ended in divorce (the couple had already been estranged for some time), and the following April, he married Côté.

...Lévesque led the PQ to victory in the 1981 election, increasing the party's majority in the National Assembly of Quebec and increasing its share of the popular vote from 41.1 to 49 per cent.

Lone Primate said...

Truth be told, I hope the Conservatives get killed in eastern Canada. It would really clear the air out here.

Oh, I imagine the air out there will be blue, as ever... in both senses of the term. :)

L-girl said...

If, on the other hand, Paul Martin kills someone in a hit-and-run between now and Jan.23, the Conservatives might squeak through...

I'm not sure that's necessarily a fatal (pardon the pun) liability in Canadian politics... From Wikipedia:

On February 6, 1977, [René] Lévesque's car fatally struck Edgar Trottier, a homeless man who had been lying on the road. The incident gained extra notoriety when it was revealed that the female companion in the vehicle was not his wife, but a secretary named Corinne Côté.


Don't tell Ted Kennedy, he'll be so jealous!

Lone Primate said...

Here's something to consider, particularly by those who feel disenfranchized by others electing governments over their heads and their wishes. On my way in this morning, I heard on the radio that the country in general and Ontario in general favour Stephen Harper's strategy for dealing with gun issues. But Toronto itself favours the strategy of the Liberal Party. So the people who are most affected by gun issues, currently, may suffer a government elected that will impose upon them a solution they do not want, forced upon them by the rest of the country.

I wonder what the advice of some people would be in this case. What are Toronto's legitimate options? Curse the rest of the nation? Stamp our feet, hold our breath, threaten secession, taking the entire banking industry and much of the manufacturing and commercial infrastructure of the nation with us? After all, we hear this time and time and time without end from several other places in the country. Do we too join the chorus of discord?

RobfromAlberta said...

What are Toronto's legitimate options? Curse the rest of the nation? Stamp our feet, hold our breath, threaten secession, taking the entire banking industry and much of the manufacturing and commercial infrastructure of the nation with us?

I like it!

RobfromAlberta said...

All seriousness aside, though. Toronto will get what Toronto wants, have no fear.

James said...

'course, Pearson gave us the Canada Pension Plan and universal health care, as well as the student loans program.

Yes, but as I recall, he also left the country with a balanced budget -- or close enough as makes no odds.


You don't have to be conservative to have a balanced budget -- or have to run a deficit if you're liberal. If you can fund social programs properly and balance a budget at the same time, more power to you (and to the social programs!).

I wonder what the advice of some people would be in this case. What are Toronto's legitimate options? Curse the rest of the nation? Stamp our feet, hold our breath, threaten secession, taking the entire banking industry and much of the manufacturing and commercial infrastructure of the nation with us? After all, we hear this time and time and time without end from several other places in the country. Do we too join the chorus of discord?

Bowser & Blue once suggested that we should float Montreal up the St. Lawrence and across Lake Ontario to join it up with the GTA, creating the new megacity of Moronto.

Echo Mouse said...

Moronto...lolol
That's a great idea actually. Particularly if it can wipe out Newmarket and Aurora and Bradford ;)

L-girl said...

float Montreal up the St. Lawrence and across Lake Ontario to join it up with the GTA,

Oo, I'd love that! Plus we'd get a funny name in the bargain.

Lone Primate said...

I could do with Montreal being closer, yeah. :)